Volume around Election Day
Each bar is that day's volume as a share of the 20-day moving average measured on Election Day. 100% means an ordinary day.
Data table
Volume by election
Day-after volume exceeds the 20-day baseline in five of the six elections on both indices. The exception is 2008. The financial crisis complicates comparisons with that year.
Return tests
Comparing Election Day returns with the surrounding period found no significant difference on either index.
| Index | Test | p-value | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | Election-day returns vs. surrounding days | 0.301 | not significant |
| NYSE Composite | Election-period returns vs. surrounding days | 0.171 | not significant |
| NYSE Composite | Day-after volume vs. 20-day average (Wilcoxon) | < 0.01 | significant |
The report interprets the increase in volume as investors responding to election outcomes. The tests do not isolate that explanation from other events. A statistically insignificant return result does not mean prices stayed unchanged. With only six elections, this is a descriptive comparison.
The report gives a Nasdaq day-after volume increase of 41.98%, which differs from the mean of the six plotted election values (about 19.1%). The charts here use the plotted values. Umar Farouk analyzed returns; I analyzed trading volume.