01
Volume around Election Day
Each bar is that day's volume as a share of the 20-day moving average measured on Election Day. 100% means an ordinary day.
Data table
02
Every election, one row
The day after is above normal in five of six elections on both indices. 2008 is the exception: volume was already extreme during the financial crisis, so the 20-day baseline was inflated.
03
Returns stay put
Comparing Election Day returns with the surrounding period found no significant difference on either index.
| Index | Test | p-value | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | Election-day returns vs. surrounding days | 0.301 | not significant |
| NYSE Composite | Election-period returns vs. surrounding days | 0.171 | not significant |
| NYSE Composite | Day-after volume vs. 20-day average (Wilcoxon) | < 0.01 | significant |
Reading: investors trade more once uncertainty resolves, but prices absorb the outcome without an abnormal move that day. Six elections is a small sample, so treat the pattern as descriptive rather than a trading rule.